Black Smoke Rises: No Pope Elected on First Day
Vatican City, May 7, 2025 — Black smoke rises: no pope elected on the first day of the 2025 conclave. As the dense plume rose from the Sistine Chapel chimney on Wednesday evening, it signaled that the 133 cardinal-electors had failed to reach the two-thirds majority—at least 89 votes—required to elect a new leader for the Catholic Church following the death of Pope Francis last month at 88 years old.
More than 45,000 people gathered in St. Peter’s Square, watching with bated breath as the smoke poured from the chapel. When the smoke turned black, the crowd responded with a collective murmur of disappointment, followed by respectful applause. Some remained behind to pray, while others made plans to return the next day.
This conclave marks a pivotal moment in modern Church history. The world’s attention has turned to the Vatican once again to witness the selection of a leader who will shape the spiritual direction of more than 1.3 billion Catholics globally.
A Sacred Tradition Reignited
Earlier in the day, the cardinal-electors had gathered inside St. Peter’s Basilica for the “Pro Eligendo Pontifice” Mass, a ritual Mass held before any papal election. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the most distinguished cardinal-bishop present and someone deeply tied into the hierarchy of the Vatican, delivered the homily. He requested that the clergy assembled there pray for heavenly guidance and lay stress upon unity, humility, and sympathy while making their decisions.
Following the Mass, the cardinals processed to the Sistine Chapel, where Michelangelo’s renowned frescoes—The Last Judgment and Creation of Adam—oversaw them as they were about to deliberate. In this sacred room, the cardinals swore the oath of secrecy, vowing never to disclose the activities of the conclave to anyone outside the edifice. Everything electronic, paper, and external communication was surrendered. The doors were closed tight, legally opening the conclave.
Understanding the Conclave Process
The papal conclave is the grandest, most revered decision-making institution in the world. Church law limits its membership to cardinals under the age of 80, setting its qualifications standards. In this year, 133 qualified electors from more than 70 nations testify to the universality of the modern Catholic Church. The diversity of the College of Cardinals is both its strength and weakness, carrying with it a variety of diverse cultural perspectives and theological agendas.
The procedure of voting is straightforward but not frivolous. The cardinal on a paper ballot writes the name of his favorite candidate, makes a fold on it, lays it on a paten—a little plate—and finally drops it into a chalice on the altar. The scrutineers count and count the ballots in each completed vote. If none achieves the two-thirds majority, the ballots are burned with a special chemical composition that emits black smoke. An election that had gone well will have white smoke.
Only one vote is taken on the first day of conclave. Starting the next day, the cardinals will vote up to four times daily—two in the morning and two in the afternoon. If after three days the election is still not over, the conclave is interrupted for one day of prayer and reflection. The negotiations continue until there is consensus among the cardinals.
Potential Candidates to Watch
Although no official campaigns have yet been declared, several names have emerged as potential favorites. A likely contender is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Secretary of State of the Vatican. A moderate theologically and diplomatic in style, Parolin is widely respected by conservatives and progressives alike.
A key participant is also Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the head of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples. Tagle is seen as a charm leader, particularly by the cardinals from the South, where Christianity is growing forcefully.
Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet, one of the greatest theological scholars known, and Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who has always been an advocate for social justice and climate action, are also on the papabili—or papal candidate—list. But sources advise that there could always be an unexpected twist. In 2013, not among the favorite candidates considered was Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, now Pope Francis.
What Is at Stake for the Church?
Many things look the Church in the face in 2025. Pope Francis’s pontificate was distinguished by a call to inclusion, environmental protection, interfaith dialogue, and economic justice. His efforts at decentralizing Church authority, making laypeople more visible, and addressing entrenched scandals defined his papacy.
It is now up to the College of Cardinals to determine if it will continue the reformist trajectory of Pope Francis or put the Church on a more conservative path. There are cardinals willing to reconsider introducing strict enforcement of doctrine and reassertion of liturgical formality. Others argue the Church must evolve to address problems of the modern world, such as gender equality, LGBTQ+ inclusion, and church attendance decline in Western countries.
The Church’s credibility has also been damaged by recent scandals, including clerical abuse and financial corruption. The new pope will have to restore trust in the institution without sacrificing doctrinal continuity.
The People’s Voices: Reform and Inclusion
Outside Vatican City, many are calling for more inclusive representation within the Church leadership. On Wednesday, the organization Catholic Women’s Ordination (CWO) held a peaceful protest near Gianicolo Hill. Activists released pink smoke, a symbolic contrast to the Vatican’s traditional black and white system, demanding more inclusive leadership for women in the Church.
Miriam Duignan, a spokesperson for the group, explained, “We release pink smoke to remind the Church that half its members are women, yet they remain excluded from decision-making at the highest levels. We’re not seeking the destruction of tradition—we seek participation in it.”
Though Pope Francis opened more administrative roles to women during his papacy, he maintained the stance that women cannot be ordained as priests. Reform advocates hope his successor will take bolder steps toward inclusion.
How Long Will the Conclave Last?
Papal conclaves don’t all last the same length of time. Some are brief, a day or so, and some last weeks. The 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis lasted just two days. The 1830 conclave that elected Pope Gregory XVI lasted over 50 days.
The majority of Vatican observers predict that this conclave could be over in three or four days. But without consensus or a front-runner, it might take longer.
During voting, Vatican staff burn ballots on a daily basis. Individuals gather in St. Peter’s Square after each vote, holding their breaths in anticipation of the cue. The square is now an area of anticipation—pilgrims, priests, tourists, journalists, and believers stand united, fixed on the little chimney.
When the White Smoke Appears
After a cardinal has obtained the necessary 89 votes, ballots are burned with no chemicals added. This generates a white smoke plume, and then St. Peter’s Basilica bells are tolled. Several hours later, the senior cardinal deacon appears on the central balcony to announce: “Habemus Papam”—”We have a pope.”
The new pope then proceeds to give his first apostolic blessing: Urbi et Orbi, “to the City and to the World.” This is an international event, seen by millions of people worldwide.
Until then, the world waits.
Voices from the Square
Among the gathered, the mood remains hopeful. Cinzia Caporali, a nurse from Tuscany, stood with her husband under the shared umbrella.
“We’re not just waiting for a man in white robes,” she said. “We’re waiting for someone to guide us through this troubled world.”
Next to her, a contingent of Brazilian seminarians quietly sang, praying for a pope who would be young at heart.
“The next pope should be one who will listen to Africa, to Latin America, and to the regions where the faith is growing,” said Sister Margaret, a nun from Kenya.
These views are a cross-section of perspectives from across the globe. From war zones to refugee camps, campuses to parishes, Catholics and non-Catholics alike have an interest in where the Church is going.
What Comes Next?
As the conclave enters its second day, the cardinals will resume voting Thursday morning. Analysts predict two votes in the morning and two in the afternoon. If they reach a consensus, white smoke may rise by evening.
Until then, the faithful remain patient. Reporters camp outside the Vatican. Experts speculate. Tourists snap photos. Yet behind the chapel’s locked doors, 133 cardinals deliberate on a decision that will shape not only Church doctrine, but the spiritual and moral direction of the world. Read this History of Papal Conclaves
